The National Weather Service (NWS) office in La Crosse, Wisconsin provides critical weather information, including snowfall predictions, for the region. This article explains how the NWS La Crosse uses various tools and models to forecast snowfall, and how to interpret the different types of snowfall information provided.
Decoding NWS La Crosse Snowfall Forecasts
The NWS La Crosse utilizes a combination of advanced weather models, real-time observations from radar and satellites, and expert analysis to create snowfall forecasts. These forecasts are presented in several formats to provide a comprehensive understanding of potential snowfall scenarios.
Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts
Recognizing the inherent uncertainty in weather forecasting, the NWS La Crosse often presents snowfall predictions in terms of probabilities. This approach provides a range of possible snowfall amounts, allowing users to assess the risk of different snowfall scenarios. These probabilities are typically expressed as chances of exceeding specific snowfall totals. For example, a “90% chance of 2 inches or more” means there’s a high likelihood of at least 2 inches of snow, with a small (10%) chance of less than that amount. Conversely, a “10% chance of 6 inches or more” indicates a lower probability of significant snowfall, with a 90% chance of receiving less than 6 inches.
Example of a minimum potential snow accumulation map from the NWS.
Expected Snowfall – The Official Forecast
The NWS La Crosse also issues an official snowfall forecast, representing the most likely snowfall amount based on all available data. This forecast is determined by experienced meteorologists who analyze the probabilistic model output, along with other observational data. While this represents the most probable outcome, it’s important to remember that actual snowfall can vary.
Example of a maximum potential snow accumulation map from the NWS.
Snowfall Accumulation Maps
Visual representations of predicted snowfall totals, often presented as color-coded maps, are frequently used by the NWS La Crosse. These maps provide a geographical overview of expected snowfall, allowing users to quickly assess potential impacts across the region. Different maps may depict different scenarios, such as the most likely snowfall, the high-end possibility (low probability of exceeding), and the low-end possibility (high probability of exceeding).
Location-Specific Snowfall Data
In addition to maps, the NWS La Crosse provides snowfall predictions for specific locations in table format. These tables may include probabilities of exceeding certain snowfall amounts, as well as the expected snowfall range for each location. This granular data allows users to obtain highly localized snowfall information.
Utilizing NWS La Crosse Resources for Winter Weather Preparedness
Understanding the various snowfall prediction tools and resources provided by the National Weather Service La Crosse is crucial for effective winter weather preparedness. By utilizing these resources, individuals and communities can make informed decisions to mitigate the potential impacts of winter storms. Consult the NWS La Crosse website for the latest forecasts, warnings, and safety information. Regularly checking for updates, especially during periods of potential winter weather, is essential for staying informed and safe.
