Navigating weather forecasts and understanding potential winter hazards is crucial, especially in regions prone to significant seasonal changes like Vermont and Northern New York. The National Weather Service (NWS) Burlington VT office plays a vital role in providing critical weather information, forecasts, and warnings for this specific region. This page serves as your guide to understanding the resources and information available from NWS Burlington, helping you stay informed and prepared for all types of weather conditions.
Understanding Snowfall Forecasts from NWS Burlington
For areas anticipating snowfall, NWS Burlington offers a suite of experimental probabilistic snowfall products designed to complement their official forecasts. These tools help communicate the uncertainties inherent in weather prediction, particularly during winter storms.
Probabilistic Snowfall Products: A Range of Possibilities
NWS Burlington provides several key probabilistic snowfall forecasts:
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Low End Amount (90% Chance of Higher Snowfall): This map illustrates a conservative snowfall estimate. There’s a high probability (90%) that actual snowfall will exceed this amount. It’s useful for lower-bound planning scenarios.
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Expected Snowfall – Official NWS Forecast: This is the official snowfall forecast, representing the most likely outcome according to NWS meteorologists. It’s based on a comprehensive analysis of weather models, satellite data, radar, and other observations. This is the primary forecast to consider for most planning purposes.
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High End Amount (10% Chance of Higher Snowfall): This map shows a more extreme, upper-end snowfall potential. There’s only a small chance (10%) that snowfall will be higher than this amount. This is helpful for understanding worst-case scenarios and for high-impact planning.
These experimental products are designed to give users a range of potential snowfall outcomes, acknowledging the uncertainties in forecasting and allowing for better-informed decision-making during winter weather events.
Percent Chance of Exceeding Snowfall Amounts
Beyond specific amount forecasts, NWS Burlington also provides probabilities for snowfall exceeding certain thresholds. This series of maps shows the percent chance that snowfall will equal or surpass amounts like 0.1″, 1″, 2″, 4″, 6″, 8″, 12″, and 18″. These probabilities are derived from multiple computer model simulations, offering a detailed look at the likelihood of various snowfall accumulations.
Ice Accumulation Forecasts
Winter weather hazards in Vermont and Northern New York aren’t limited to snow. Ice accumulation is a significant concern, and NWS Burlington provides forecasts to help residents prepare for icy conditions.
Expected Ice Accumulation
The Expected Ice Accumulation forecast from NWS Burlington represents the official forecast for elevated flat surface ice accumulation. It’s important to note that this forecast differs from radial/line ice, which typically accumulates on trees and power lines. Radial/line ice accumulation is generally about 39% of the elevated flat surface ice accumulation. Understanding this distinction is crucial for assessing potential impacts.
Most Likely Ice Accumulation
The Most Likely Ice Accumulation forecast provides ice accumulation amounts in ranges, representing the official ice forecast in inches for the next one to three days. This forecast helps in understanding the anticipated severity of ice events.
Precipitation Timing: Onset and End
Knowing when winter precipitation will start and end is critical for planning and safety. NWS Burlington offers forecasts for both the onset and end times of wintry precipitation.
Precipitation Onset
The Precipitation Onset forecast indicates the most likely time when winter precipitation (snow, sleet, or freezing rain – excluding rain) will begin. This information is typically provided when a Winter Weather Warning or Advisory is in effect, usually 6 to 24 hours in advance of the event. Onset times are only given for areas under a Warning or Advisory.
Precipitation End Time
Similarly, the Precipitation End Time forecast indicates the most likely time when winter precipitation will cease. Like the onset forecast, this information is provided during Warnings or Advisories for snow or ice accumulation, typically 6 to 24 hours in advance, and is only available for warned areas.
Additional Winter Weather Resources
NWS Burlington’s online resources extend beyond these core forecasts, offering a comprehensive suite of tools to monitor and understand winter weather:
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Wind Chill Forecasts: Daily wind chill forecasts help assess the risk of frostbite and hypothermia during cold weather.
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Snow Character Forecasts: Information about the type and characteristics of snow expected.
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Daily Snowfall Maps: Maps depicting daily snowfall and snow depth for Vermont and Northern New York, sourced from both WFO Burlington and the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.
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Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI): An index to help understand the potential severity and impacts of winter storms.
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Winter Storm Outlook (WSO): Provides an outlook for potential winter storms in the coming days.
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National Snow Reports and Analysis: Access to national-level snow reports and snowfall analysis.
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Days 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook: Longer-range outlooks for winter weather conditions.
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CPC Week 2 & Week 3-4 Outlooks: Climate Prediction Center outlooks for temperature and precipitation extending weeks into the future.
Local Snowfall Climatology
For those interested in historical snow patterns, NWS Burlington provides a wealth of climatological data:
- Snowfall Climatology for Northern New York & Vermont: Detailed climatology information specific to the region.
- Historical Monthly Snowfall – Burlington, VT: Historical snowfall data for Burlington, VT.
- Top Snowfall Totals and Snowstorms: Records of top monthly snow totals and greatest snowstorms.
- Monthly Max/Min/Average Snowfall: Extremes and averages for monthly snowfall.
- Earliest/Latest Snowfall Dates: Information on the timing of first and last snowfalls.
- Post Mortem Snowfall Analysis Archive: Archives of past snowfall analysis.
- Past Weather Events: Records of past significant weather events.
Stay Informed with NWS Burlington
The National Weather Service Burlington Vt is your reliable source for weather information in Vermont and Northern New York. By utilizing these resources, you can stay ahead of winter weather, make informed decisions, and ensure your safety and preparedness. Whether you’re planning your commute, preparing for a winter storm, or simply curious about the local climate, NWS Burlington provides the data and forecasts you need.
