The National Weather Service (NWS) in Hastings, Nebraska provides critical winter weather forecasts to ensure public safety and preparedness. This article will delve into how the NWS Hastings uses various tools and models to predict snowfall, ice accumulation, and other winter weather hazards.
Decoding NWS Hastings Winter Weather Predictions
The NWS Hastings employs a suite of advanced technologies and methodologies to generate accurate and timely winter weather forecasts. These include:
Probabilistic Snowfall Forecasts
Unlike traditional forecasts that provide a single snowfall amount, probabilistic forecasts offer a range of possibilities. The NWS Hastings utilizes computer model simulations to determine the likelihood of different snowfall totals. These are often presented as:
- Low-End Amount (90% Chance of Higher Snowfall): This represents a conservative estimate, with a 90% probability that actual snowfall will exceed this value.
- Expected Snowfall (Official NWS Forecast): This is the most likely snowfall amount based on all available data.
- High-End Amount (10% Chance of Higher Snowfall): This is a less likely, but still possible, higher-end snowfall scenario, with a 10% chance of exceeding this amount.
This approach helps communicate the uncertainty inherent in weather forecasting, allowing individuals and organizations to plan for a range of potential outcomes.
Percent Chance of Exceeding Specific Snowfall Amounts
The NWS Hastings also provides maps illustrating the probability of snowfall reaching or surpassing certain thresholds (e.g., 1 inch, 2 inches, 4 inches). These probabilities are visually depicted, making it easier to understand the likelihood of significant snowfall.
Ice Accumulation Forecasts
Ice accumulation forecasts from the NWS Hastings predict the potential buildup of freezing rain on elevated surfaces. These forecasts are crucial for anticipating potential power outages and travel disruptions caused by ice. The forecasts usually represent flat surface ice accumulation and are distinct from radial/line ice, which typically accumulates on power lines and trees.
Precipitation Timing
The NWS Hastings issues predictions for the onset and end times of winter precipitation events (snow, sleet, freezing rain). This information is particularly valuable for planning travel and other activities during winter storms.
Additional Resources from the National Weather Service
Beyond short-term forecasts, the NWS Hastings offers various resources for longer-range outlooks and national weather information, including:
- Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI): This index assesses the potential impact of winter storms based on various factors.
- Days 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook: Provides a longer-range perspective on potential winter weather hazards.
- National Snowfall Analysis: Offers a comprehensive overview of snowfall across the country.
Staying Informed with NWS Hastings
Staying informed about winter weather is vital in areas prone to snow and ice. Regularly checking the NWS Hastings website and utilizing resources like NOAA Weather Radio are essential steps for preparedness. Understanding the various types of forecasts and information provided by the National Weather Service empowers individuals to make informed decisions and stay safe during winter weather events.
